Inverted yield curves today
10Y−2Y term spreads as of 2026-10-26
1 of 380 bond yield curves are inverted today — the fitted 10-year yield sits below the 2-year — as of 2026-10-26. Deepest inversion: USD Corporate High Yield Real Estate at -9 bp.
Spreads come from each curve's fitted 2-year and 10-year points at its latest build date; only curves rebuilt within the last 7 days are counted. A negative spread — short yields above long — is the classic recession signal watched on government benchmarks; on sector and issuer segments it more often flags near-term credit stress priced into short maturities.
Government benchmarks
| Curve | 2Y | 10Y | 10Y − 2Y | Δ 1m | 6M trend | Bonds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RON Government | 7.23% | 7.42% | +20 bp | +7 bp | 88 | |
| USD Government | 4.70% | 4.93% | +23 bp | -3 bp | 1047 | |
| US Treasury | 4.70% | 4.93% | +23 bp | -3 bp | 339 | |
| USD Government Domestic | 4.70% | 4.93% | +23 bp | -3 bp | 339 | |
| AUD Government | 4.88% | 5.18% | +30 bp | -15 bp | 33 | |
| Australian Government Bond (ACGB) | 4.88% | 5.18% | +30 bp | -15 bp | 30 | |
| German Bund | 3.06% | 3.36% | +30 bp | -10 bp | 89 | |
| HKD Government | 3.59% | 3.95% | +37 bp | +7 bp | 31 | |
| CNY Government | 1.39% | 1.87% | +48 bp | +3 bp | 46 | |
| China Government Bond (CGB) | 1.39% | 1.87% | +48 bp | +3 bp | 29 | |
| CAD Government | 3.29% | 3.82% | +53 bp | -7 bp | 55 | |
| Government of Canada Bond | 3.29% | 3.82% | +53 bp | -7 bp | 55 | |
| INR Government | 6.98% | 7.52% | +54 bp | +0 bp | 78 | |
| Indian Government Security (G-Sec) | 6.98% | 7.52% | +54 bp | +0 bp | 78 | |
| GBP Government | 4.70% | 5.33% | +63 bp | -2 bp | 72 | |
| UK Gilt | 4.70% | 5.33% | +63 bp | -2 bp | 70 | |
| EUR Government Domestic | 3.32% | 4.19% | +87 bp | +12 bp | 677 | |
| Spanish Bono | 3.13% | 4.01% | +88 bp | +17 bp | 63 | |
| USD Government Foreign | 5.41% | 6.34% | +93 bp | -23 bp | 708 | |
| Italian BTP | 3.50% | 4.48% | +98 bp | -1 bp | 118 | |
| JPY Government | 1.85% | 2.85% | +100 bp | -19 bp | 385 | |
| Japanese Government Bond (JGB) | 1.85% | 2.85% | +100 bp | -19 bp | 310 | |
| JPY Government Domestic | 1.85% | 2.85% | +100 bp | -16 bp | 310 | |
| Indonesia USD Sovereign Bond | 5.17% | 6.23% | +106 bp | -7 bp | 63 | |
| EUR Government | 3.35% | 4.50% | +114 bp | +2 bp | 916 | |
| French OAT | 3.70% | 4.86% | +116 bp | +2 bp | 69 | |
| Türkiye USD Sovereign Bond | 6.41% | 7.64% | +123 bp | +22 bp | 29 | |
| EUR Government Foreign | 3.89% | 5.43% | +154 bp | +10 bp | 239 | |
| JPY Government Foreign | 2.47% | 4.14% | +167 bp | -10 bp | 75 |
Inverted today
| Curve | 2Y | 10Y | 10Y − 2Y | Δ 1m | 6M trend | Bonds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD Corporate High Yield Real Estate | 6.94% | 6.85% | -9 bp | — | 172 |
Near inversion (10Y−2Y under 25 bp)
| Curve | 2Y | 10Y | 10Y − 2Y | Δ 1m | 6M trend | Bonds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOK Corporate Investment Grade | 5.44% | 5.50% | +6 bp | +14 bp | 33 | |
| USD Corporate High Yield Real Estate United States | 6.60% | 6.69% | +9 bp | — | 152 | |
| RON Government | 7.23% | 7.42% | +20 bp | +7 bp | 88 | |
| USD Government | 4.70% | 4.93% | +23 bp | -3 bp | 1047 | |
| US Treasury | 4.70% | 4.93% | +23 bp | -3 bp | 339 | |
| USD Government Domestic | 4.70% | 4.93% | +23 bp | -3 bp | 339 |