Inverted yield curves today
10Y−2Y term spreads as of 2026-09-11
15 of 1684 bond yield curves are inverted today — the fitted 10-year yield sits below the 2-year — as of 2026-09-11. Deepest inversion: USD Corporate Technology, Media & Telecom United Kingdom at -308 bp.
Spreads come from each curve's fitted 2-year and 10-year points at its latest build date; only curves rebuilt within the last 7 days are counted. A negative spread — short yields above long — is the classic recession signal watched on government benchmarks; on sector and issuer segments it more often flags near-term credit stress priced into short maturities.
Government benchmarks
| Curve | 2Y | 10Y | 10Y − 2Y | Δ 1m | 6M trend | Bonds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RON Government | 7.21% | 7.44% | +23 bp | +33 bp | 69 | |
| US Treasury | 4.54% | 4.90% | +36 bp | -10 bp | 331 | |
| USD Government Domestic | 4.54% | 4.90% | +36 bp | — | 331 | |
| USD Government | 4.54% | 4.90% | +36 bp | -9 bp | 1051 | |
| German Bund | 3.09% | 3.50% | +41 bp | -3 bp | 87 | |
| AUD Government | 4.90% | 5.32% | +42 bp | +2 bp | 34 | |
| Australian Government Bond (ACGB) | 4.90% | 5.32% | +42 bp | +2 bp | 31 | |
| HKD Government | 3.24% | 3.69% | +45 bp | -16 bp | 31 | |
| CNY Government | 1.42% | 1.88% | +46 bp | +3 bp | 47 | |
| China Government Bond (CGB) | 1.42% | 1.88% | +46 bp | +3 bp | 30 | |
| INR Government | 6.23% | 6.77% | +55 bp | +23 bp | 70 | |
| Indian Government Security (G-Sec) | 6.23% | 6.77% | +55 bp | +23 bp | 70 | |
| CAD Government | 3.28% | 3.94% | +66 bp | -5 bp | 56 | |
| Government of Canada Bond | 3.28% | 3.94% | +66 bp | -5 bp | 55 | |
| GBP Government | 4.68% | 5.35% | +67 bp | -12 bp | 68 | |
| UK Gilt | 4.68% | 5.35% | +67 bp | -12 bp | 68 | |
| Spanish Bono | 3.17% | 3.96% | +78 bp | +2 bp | 61 | |
| EUR Government Domestic | 3.25% | 4.12% | +87 bp | — | 671 | |
| USD Government Foreign | 5.34% | 6.26% | +92 bp | — | 720 | |
| Italian BTP | 3.37% | 4.37% | +99 bp | +1 bp | 114 | |
| EUR Government | 3.24% | 4.34% | +110 bp | +15 bp | 919 | |
| Indonesia USD Sovereign Bond | 4.74% | 5.85% | +111 bp | -10 bp | 65 | |
| French OAT | 3.29% | 4.41% | +112 bp | +10 bp | 70 | |
| JPY Government | 1.79% | 2.93% | +114 bp | -8 bp | 292 | |
| Japanese Government Bond (JGB) | 1.79% | 2.93% | +114 bp | -8 bp | 292 | |
| EUR Government Foreign | 3.96% | 5.13% | +117 bp | — | 248 | |
| Türkiye USD Sovereign Bond | 6.14% | 7.40% | +126 bp | — | 31 |
Inverted today
Near inversion (10Y−2Y under 25 bp)
| Curve | 2Y | 10Y | 10Y − 2Y | Δ 1m | 6M trend | Bonds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD Corporate Secured Technology, Media & Telecom | 7.35% | 7.36% | +1 bp | +6 bp | 198 | |
| EUR Corporate Asset Managers | 3.85% | 3.93% | +8 bp | -5 bp | 41 | |
| EUR Corporate Senior Unsecured Asset Managers | 3.83% | 3.93% | +10 bp | -4 bp | 40 | |
| USD Corporate Argentina Callable | 7.53% | 7.64% | +11 bp | -50 bp | 68 | |
| USD Corporate BB+–D (High Yield) Argentina Callable | 7.53% | 7.64% | +11 bp | -50 bp | 68 | |
| USD Corporate Senior Unsecured Oil & Gas Argentina Callable | 7.34% | 7.48% | +13 bp | — | — | 34 |
| USD Corporate Secured Insurance Callable | 5.84% | 6.00% | +16 bp | -36 bp | 35 | |
| USD Corporate Senior Unsecured Oil & Gas Argentina | 7.31% | 7.49% | +17 bp | — | — | 35 |
| USD Corporate Secured Callable | 5.87% | 6.05% | +19 bp | -11 bp | 1568 | |
| CNY Corporate Senior Unsecured | 2.21% | 2.42% | +20 bp | -27 bp | 89 | |
| USD Corporate Senior Unsecured Metals & Mining Canada | 6.22% | 6.44% | +22 bp | -56 bp | 38 | |
| RON Government | 7.21% | 7.44% | +23 bp | +33 bp | 69 | |
| USD Corporate Senior Unsecured Metals & Mining Canada Callable | 6.23% | 6.46% | +23 bp | -51 bp | 37 |